I don´t think I ever have been as nervous as getting on the plane in Copenhagen, since I had spent weeks researching the possibility to get any camera equipment inside this war torn city. Most people said;

“No way you will get it in!”

I was hoping my contacts at high level I had nurtured the first time I was here back in 2009 would do the work for me, but the closer our departure, the more unlikely that seemed, that somebody would tell the security at the airport to let these guys through. When the three of us arrived at the counter in Dubai, we didn´t have a visa and weren´t allowed on board, so we were told that we had to get one in a few hours otherwise we would be put on a plane back to Copenhagen. Now, that would have been the same as economic ruin for the family, since we have invested everything we have in this venture. So we called our friends in Sanaa and as usual, nothing is impossible, so amazingly enough, one of them, Sabri Saleem, were flying out to Dubai a couple of hours later, with his new wife. The wedding we were aiming for, was already over!

So, a few hours later, we were woken by an announcement that the plane from Sanaa had arrived and our friend not only turned up with his new beautiful wife, our visas but also managed to argue in the typical Sanaa fashion, that it wasn´t our fault we didn´t have visas, but the airlines. So we ended up staying in a hotel with a free all you can eat in Dubai and next morning we caught the plane to Sanaa.

Sanaas Airport is a bit like a shack, but we were still worried whether we would get in or not and when I got stopped by a meticulous security officer who was in a bad mood, our friend with connections turned up and helped us through just like that! Can you imagine that happening in Sweden or the US?

It felt great being back in Sanaa! We did immediately see that areas were cut off, heavily guarded by armed police, there were a lot of armed tribes men in the city and things looked more run down than before, but otherwise it was still Sanaa and people cheered, greeted us and they all loved Eva!

So right now, we are studying Arabic again and my lessons starts in an hour and a half. Birds are singing outside the flat or big room that we have at the school and the girls are still sleeping. We have heard a lot of gunfire, some heavy bombs, since we arrived, but we are moving around pretty much as before. We live in a pro-Saleh area for good and bad, just a few hundred metres for Tahrir Square were his supporters are camping. If things change dramatically and Saleh will be removed, that isn´t the best for us at the moment, but probably the best for the people!

But of course the war has affected everything negatively. I have cried twice when meeting our old friends. They´re so thin, they´ve aged a lot and look really haunted by these new experiences. One has lost his brother, who got shot by a sniper whilst they demonstrated. Our friend walked next to him. One runs sick sack every morning and evening when going to and from work avoiding to get hit and he sleeps in his hall, like most other people who are caught between the warring groups, or tribal fighting which it really is. It is like a big cockfight between the president Abduallah Ali Saleh and his two former friends and now deadly enemies (same tribe, the Hashid) who is strongest. Nobody will give away and they just don´t seem to care a bit about their own people, which is really a disaster.

The smell of urine and all kinds of shit is heavy everywhere, since a lot of the infrastructure has come apart, but things still seems to work and it is actually far better than I imagined. No matter what, it feels great being back! But how I am going to get a camel or two, or maybe even a horse or two, or a donkey or two and start travelling, that seems impossible right now. I haven´t taken a photo or done any filming yet, just connecting, meeting people and assessing the situation.

Pamela and Eva are doing fine. Eva is adjusting to the day heat, which is high, even though Sanaa is located on 2200 metres above sea level, days a re warm and nights crisp. We are moving slowly with her and her mother is the greatest of mothers and breast feed her all the time now, since food is dodgy. Pamela is doing her Arabic, otherwise her research hasn´t moved forward yet. We are all adjusting. Feels great being back, one feels alive here, not dead and bored like in Malmö!

For photos, see the gallery!

The Post-Gaddafi Future

by

Justin Marozzi

There are many reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Libya

The question for Libyans, as they take their first momentous steps into the post-Gaddafi era, is whether they can now build a government and country worthy of their heroic struggle against one of the world’s worst tyrants.

For decades, conventional thinking about Arab nations, especially among the experts, argued that they were best ruled by ‘strongmen’, a western euphemism for pro-western dictators such as the deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his former counterpart in Tunisia Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. According to this line of thought, Arabs don’t do democracy. They are too tribal and fractious for such enlightened politics. For western leaders, it has been a case of better the devil you know, and hang the consequences for the Arabs.

Yet the success in Libya, hard on the heels of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia and those so far frustrated efforts in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, suggests that Arabs from the Atlantic in the west to the Arabian Desert in the east are not willing to remain passive victims of dictatorships forever. We need to understand this new dynamic and support it. In the British media, however, there is a tendency to seek out the most pessimistic scenario, for Libya and the Arab world more widely.

Where Libyans talk of creating a new Dubai on the shores of the Mediterranean, sceptics mutter about another Somalia. Where optimists like the lavishly maned French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy pay tribute to the extraordinary breadth of interests represented by the National Transitional Council in Benghazi, cynics spot al-Qa’eda moving in to capitalise on the instability and point to the emergence of Islamists in post-revolution Egypt and Tunisia. Instead of hailing the council’s success at maintaining security, we are supposed to believe that the single assassination in Benghazi of rebel commander General Abdul Fattah Younes invalidates the entire Libyan campaign. It doesn’t.

When David Cameron took the lead in pushing for a no-fly zone back in February, the doom-mongers were already queuing up to denounce what they considered yet another Iraq or Afghanistan. As the campaign progressed, they were quick to detect a ‘stalemate’. The rebels were inevitably ‘divided’. Nato’s campaign, they argued, was ‘running into the sand’. The Italians wobbled, the French faltered (peace talks, anybody?), but London remained resolute. The prime minister maintains it was ‘necessary, legal and right’ to intervene in Libya. He’s been proved right.

Admiral James Stavridis, Nato’s head of Allied Command Operations, says that the key components of success were the legality provided by the UN Security Council mandate, Nato’s ability to draw on a sophisticated command and logistic structure in the Mediterranean, a shared burden of responsibility among the allies and realistic goals (establishing a no-fly zone, introducing an arms embargo and protecting civilians). To these could be added strong regional support against Gaddafi and an increasingly effective and emboldened opposition.

No one would be foolish enough, however, to suggest that it is ‘mission accomplished’ in Libya. Stavridis tells me that challenges abound: ‘The keys will be the new regime’s ability to establish coherent security and basic services, cope with the return of hundreds of thousands of Libyans now in refugee camps across the borders, avoid bloodshed and retribution, create governance along the lines suggested by the National Transitional Council — which include dates and benchmarks to full democracy and elections — and get the economy up and functioning, principally the energy sector.’

That is a tall order for any established government, let alone a transitional council. There is no question that the challenges facing Libyans after Gaddafi are monumental. After 42 years of monomaniacal rule, it would be perverse to think otherwise.

Pessimists will have plenty to cheer in the coming weeks and months. The age-old differences between Tripolitania in the west and Cyrenaica in the east will resurface from the very outset. Some politicians may prefer pistols to parliaments when vying for power or resolving a difference of opinion. Small tribes may feel disenfranchised by the larger, stronger ones. A predominantly command economy cannot be restructured overnight. Oil, that unrivalled lubricant of corruption, will test the mettle and integrity of Libya’s new leaders. It will also test to breaking point the patience of long-suffering Libyans, who have watched the Gaddafi clan plunder the national wealth for four decades.

Shukri Ghanem, the former oil minister, estimates it will take 18 months for Libya to get back to its pre-war level of oil production of 1.6 million barrels a day. That will be much too slow for all those Libyans who believe they have already waited long enough. A generation of Libyan leaders unaccustomed to addressing their fellow citizens will urgently need to communicate the scale of the challenges facing the country. Chaos is likely to loom on the sidelines. As Ronald Bruce St John writes in Libya: From Colony to Independence, after four decades spent studying the country, the post-Gaddafi era will be ‘a time of considerable tension and uncertainty, with numerous socioeconomic and political groups vying for power’.

So what reasons are there for cautious optimism? Well, so far the rebel leadership has barely put a foot wrong. With few resources, it has kept the peace across eastern Libya. The fact there has only been one high-level assassination to date is a remarkable success, not a telling indictment. Assisted by the UN, the UK and the US, the Council has drawn up a detailed stabilisation plan for the immediate post-Gaddafi era. More impressively, it has drafted a 37-point ‘constitutional declaration’ which, if enacted, moves Libya towards elections for a constitutional assembly within eight months. This body would appoint a transitional government, draft a constitution to be offered to Libyans for approval in a national referendum, and hold direct elections for a democratic government within 20 months. If, as is suggested, Jordan leads the international community’s transition to democracy team, with the West reduced to providing air cover, that is another encouraging sign. Fellow Arabs should make a better fist of it. No one wants another western boots-on-the-ground intervention.

So much for plans and political theory. What else of Libya and its people? If the rebels I met in my two recent visits to Libya are any guide, the omens are good. They were not vicious zealots or Islamists, but civilised and well-educated people intent on restoring peace and order as soon as they possibly could. Unlike Iraqis, who have been cutting each other’s heads off with gusto at least since the founding of Baghdad in 762, if not much longer, Libya is not riven by sectarian division. The tribes may have their tensions, but there is no Sunni-Shia split. As Guma al Gamaty, the UK co-ordinator for the rebel council, says, ‘We have no ethnic, religious or sectarian differences. We’re the most homogenous Arab society in the world.’ Libya’s Berbers might beg to differ, of course, but the point is well made.

Libyans have also been blessed with fortunate resources and geography. With even a half-decent government in place, the population of seven million should prosper from the black gold beneath the sand, 47 billion barrels of reserves and counting, together with 1.3 trillion cubic metres of gas. Given the immense oil reserves on one hand, and the tiny population on the other, the fact that a third of Gaddafi’s Libya has lived at or below the national poverty line shows the extent of his misrule.

Earlier this summer, I spoke to one businessman in Benghazi who told me, ‘I remember Sheikh Zayed of Dubai coming to Tripoli for an eye operation in 1978. He saw the city and said, “My God, I wish I could make Dubai like this.” Can you believe that?’

Since then Dubai has grown and developed, while Tripoli has stagnated. But now can Libya follow Dubai’s example? It might sound preposterous. There is no law which states that Libya must now descend into anarchy and civil war, nor is there any guarantee of freedom and democracy. Yet the chances of success here are higher than those in any other Arab country yet to take on its dictator. The truth, as every Libyan knows, is that the opportunity is theirs for the taking.

Justin Marozzi is a travel writer, historian, journalist and political risk and security consultant. He has travelled extensively in the Middle East and Muslim world and in recent years has worked in conflict and post-conflict environments such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Darfur. Justin is a regular contributor to a wide range of national and international publications, including the Financial Times, Spectator, Times, Sunday Telegraph, Guardian, Evening Standard, Standpoint and Prospect, where he writes on international affairs, the Muslim world and defence and security issues, and has broadcast for the BBC World Service and Radio Four.

Please visit my sponsors Termo who are making it possible for me to write 2 blog reports per week. Just click the logo to find the best underwear on earth.

“We are worried. We have left everything behind in India and we have given our hearts to Oman” , Bainu Tomas said whilst we were eating breakfast together in his flat in Wattaya, “But this omanization just puts us in a limbo, not knowing what to do or expect. We accept it, but it is still kind of a shock that it will be implemented so fast. That is why my my wife is still working as a teacher, even though with a newly born child, we would need her at home here.”

Bainu came 6 years ago from the state of Kerala, like many other Indian immigrants working in Oman, on an invitation from the government. Oman needed foreign workers to be able to construct a foundation of a country. Just like their neighbors in Saudi-Arabia, Abu Dhabi and Dubai. In Dubai two-thirds of its population is made up by immigrants who are there to keep the country alive. In Oman they´re less, but the country still needs them. But Sultan Qaboos, the beloved ruler, wants Omanis in every position of the society, something I can understand, since I often wonder, what will happen if the poorly treated immigrants in Dubai would revolt against their masters? There is no doubt, that Oman is understanding the issue of keeping its Arab soul better than some of its neighbors. But, the question is, are they ready to run the country by themselves?

Muttrah by night - climate this time of the year is fantastic!

Since being involved myself in the tourist industry I have seen there´s still a lot of work and acclimatization before Oman can be run by its own people, because the service level amongst them is still low and prices heavily over flated. They still need their ex-pats and immigrants from all over the world. And being a traveller, one always feels like an immigrant, an outsider, so I do well understand them and nothing upsets me like the stories that come out from for example Dubai how badly treated some of the immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh and India are. But Bainu has been happy during his time here.

“Well, I belong to the educated immigrants who come here, not the laborers, and for this reason life has been good” , he said and smiled as always.

Bainu is religious and spends a fair amount of time in his local church all made up of Indians from Kerala, and he is therefore very easy going and gentle, and doesn´t judge anyone unfairly or complain about his own situation. But he does says he worries. He isn´t ready to return to India yet. Wages are not on the same level there. And he says that when they first came here, they could even save money and send back, but nowadays, even they almost work 6 days a week, long hours, both of them, they just about make it. But they´re doing well, the Tomas Family, there are other immigrants who are suffering. Please read this article about the situation in Dubai. Oman is different. And it feels good being back!

Abdullah - the driver which quit his job for the day to take us on a tour of Muttrah!

Since we stayed outside the more well to do parts of the time, we decided to take the small minibuses to travel around Muscat, when our friends didn´t come and pick us up, and this is really the way to see another, much more interesting part of Muscat and Oman. It is lively, demanding and you get a perspective how things are if you are not well to do in Oman. Everything takes more time and is more demanding. But you meet a lot of great people. One of them was Abdullah, who owns his own mini-taxi and when we met him and said we loved his country, who quit is job and instead took us on a tour of the city. We arrived back at our flat at 2 a.m. People are extraordinary friendly here.

But the reason we have come here this time is two very important lectures which will define the direction of the Expedition. Hold on, you will know in a few days…..this is the most important of all visits i have done to Oman. Judgement day.

Just a short note from Abu Dhabi International Airport, located just outside the richest city in the world!

After landing late at Abu Dhabi International Airport after an exhausting trip from first Williamstown in Massachusetts in a car – it took seven hours to reach Philadelphia, and from there two hours flying to Chicago and than an additional 16 hours to Abu Dhabi- I figured the city would be similar, if not as expansive, as Dubai. A city free of an Arab soul and a kind of fantasy city of spectacular man made structures. And Abu Dhabi is considered to be the richest city in the world. But I realized already on the way into Cristal Hotel, who are hosting us, that Abu Dhabi was more like a mixture of Oman and Dubai, somewhere in between. It is much more modest. We are invited to the city since their biggest newspaper published an article about the Expedition. (Read more here!)

No matter what you think, one does get impressed by all these man made structures on soemthing which used to be a hamlet in a desert!

It feels good being back in the Gulf-Arab World. Climate is as good as it could be, not to hot, not too cold, just perfect and life isn´t as fast, demanding and predictable. And this my 9th visit to this part of the world might turn out the most decisive ever when it comes to the Arabian Expedition. I am heading for Oman for two very important lectures and meeting some sponsors who really fit into what the Expedition needs to build these important bridges between the east and west. But, I am not there yet and I have just returned from a bit of a stroll through the heart of Abu Dhabi and my first reflexion is that is much more lively than both Oman and Dubai. And most people you meet are Asian immigrants, mainly resting in the parks, talking and socializing, this Friday, which is the day of rest in the Muslim world. They´re mainly Pakistanis, Indians and Filipinos. Which isn´t odd, considering that almost 75% of the total population of  around 2 million inhabitants are immigrants. And many of them are worried right now, due to the economic problems in Dubai. The taxi driver from the airport told us that the traffic congestions have doubled since December, when Dubai hit the economic wall, and that immigrants from Dubai where trying their luck in Abu Dhabi now. They are desperate to survive. Once I get to Oman, I will write a report on an immigrant family who worries a lot what will happen to them.  They have asked me to come and stay with them. In the meantime, do read this very sad article about immigrants in Dubai! The situation could be similar in Abu Dhabi. Suddenly, whilst writing here in Abu Dhabi, I just feel I do prefer Oman to these two emirates, since the Omanis are in majority in their country and you deal with them every day and in every way.

75% of the Emirate is composed of immigrants from primely Pakistan, India, Phillipines.

But, if the expedition doesn´t get the backing we want from Oman, I would easily consider Abu Dhabi to be an alternative. It has a sound Arab base, you see emiratees everywhere and they have kind of a very good mixture between the Arab and the Western world. And after having a couple of meetings here, there´s definitely a lot of interest from this little Emirate!

Keep in touch to see how it all goes…..plane to Oman just arrived!

By the way, the article about the Expedition in the National came with an editorial, read here!

Another bit of a shocker since we arrived to Oman getting ready to leave in January! Not much has gone our way over here since arrival and I am trying to figure out what direction to take. It is of course just a case of patience and hard work, and since everything here is closed until tomorrow and have been for ten days, I will phone myself hoarse tomorrow…..Anyway, I have just returned back to Muscat after a trip back and forth to Ibra over the day to visit Nasr, one of the two Bedouins (or Bedu as they are called in the Arab World) who is expected to join us for the big overland trip to the Atlantic coast. It was one of the best, most informative and interesting days during this time of mine here in Oman. The reason: Well, just getting close to these great and gracious animals called camels, the flat silent desert and the peace it brings, just made me very happy! It affected all of us three who went there. I have a very good friend visiting me, the legendary coach of Swedens Ice Hockey Team, Bengt “Fisken” Ohlsson. He has done a one months tour of Iran, Dubai, Yemen and now Oman.

“Best day of my trip!” he said, “Fantastic people!”

Eating camel for lunch....From left: Nasr, Abdullah, P and me. Just before the shocking news!

Nasr works for Sultans Royal Guards and was off on leave over Eid and his brother Abdullah was home from his studies in India, which was perfect since his English is excellent. Finally we had the chance to sit down and have a good chat. Nasr is well trained physically, motivated and his family lives in a very nice home in village just outside Ibra. Since they are Bedouin, they’re extra-ordinary generous. We were served tender camel cooked in a hole in the ground for over 24 hours. We ate this great dish together with rice and lots of Arabic coffee and halwa.

“I don´t think we will be able to leave in January” , I told Nasr immediately after arrival whilst he looked at me with respect, “We have run into some problems with time, it just takes an enormous amount of time to get things moving here and we still haven´t found any camels good enough for this trip. So that is one reason we have come to visit you today. I heard your cousin had racing camels?”

“Yes he does” , Abdullah translated, “But they´re very expensive. Like a car. The best cost more than 2 000 000 dollars.”

The Wahiba Bedus way to carry equipment......puuuhh........

The cheapest camels are about 10 000 dollars and that is an extra-ordinary sum, but that is life in the Gulf countries. In Yemen of course, you could get one, as good, for a tenth of that price, but it would be impossible to transport them to Oman, the country where we want to start our journey from. We ain´t changing our plans, yet……but there´s no doubt, I want to leave as soon as possible! But January seems unlikely right now, which means if we don´t get started before the beginning of March, it will be impossible, due to the summer heat, to leave until Mid-August. Another bit of a shocker, realizing this. All of those worries left us, of course, as soon as we made it out in to the desert south of Ibra and meeting Rashad the cousin and his 50 racing camels, beautiful, but a little bit twitchy and nervous, like racing horses. We did a little tour around camp and loved it, but I doubt these can do a long trip.

“My best camel runs 8 km in less than 13 minutes!” Rashad said and than showed me how to pack 60 kg on a camel.

Didn´t look good at all. They don´t know, the Bedus of Oman today, about long distance travel. Rashad showed me a lot of techiques and skills how to take care of camels and I enjoyed his company immensely. Funny, street smart, knowledgeable about the camel, loved them, he had worked camels since he was seven and inspired us a lot. We need at least 1 month, maybe two, to live and train the camels we will bring. A time I look forward to a lot. We could easily have stayed at that camp for two months right now, it was that relaxed, silent and pleasant. And free from email, telephones and worries…..right now, am ready for tomorrow!

By the way, I had an email from a friend who said Geoffrey Moorhouse had died. He did an attempt to cross the Sahara in the 70´s and failed. He wrote a book well worth reading if you want to understand the difficulties and dangers involved in camel travel. I wrote this piece about him earlier http://www.mikaelstrandberg.com/2009/04/01/the-fear-factor/ Another worry for us is the development in the region, see this about Dubai and this about Yemen

Rashad -very helpful camel owner and Bedu

.