The Post-Gaddafi Future

by

Justin Marozzi

There are many reasons to be cautiously optimistic about Libya

The question for Libyans, as they take their first momentous steps into the post-Gaddafi era, is whether they can now build a government and country worthy of their heroic struggle against one of the world’s worst tyrants.

For decades, conventional thinking about Arab nations, especially among the experts, argued that they were best ruled by ‘strongmen’, a western euphemism for pro-western dictators such as the deposed Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his former counterpart in Tunisia Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. According to this line of thought, Arabs don’t do democracy. They are too tribal and fractious for such enlightened politics. For western leaders, it has been a case of better the devil you know, and hang the consequences for the Arabs.

Yet the success in Libya, hard on the heels of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia and those so far frustrated efforts in Syria, Yemen and Bahrain, suggests that Arabs from the Atlantic in the west to the Arabian Desert in the east are not willing to remain passive victims of dictatorships forever. We need to understand this new dynamic and support it. In the British media, however, there is a tendency to seek out the most pessimistic scenario, for Libya and the Arab world more widely.

Where Libyans talk of creating a new Dubai on the shores of the Mediterranean, sceptics mutter about another Somalia. Where optimists like the lavishly maned French philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy pay tribute to the extraordinary breadth of interests represented by the National Transitional Council in Benghazi, cynics spot al-Qa’eda moving in to capitalise on the instability and point to the emergence of Islamists in post-revolution Egypt and Tunisia. Instead of hailing the council’s success at maintaining security, we are supposed to believe that the single assassination in Benghazi of rebel commander General Abdul Fattah Younes invalidates the entire Libyan campaign. It doesn’t.

When David Cameron took the lead in pushing for a no-fly zone back in February, the doom-mongers were already queuing up to denounce what they considered yet another Iraq or Afghanistan. As the campaign progressed, they were quick to detect a ‘stalemate’. The rebels were inevitably ‘divided’. Nato’s campaign, they argued, was ‘running into the sand’. The Italians wobbled, the French faltered (peace talks, anybody?), but London remained resolute. The prime minister maintains it was ‘necessary, legal and right’ to intervene in Libya. He’s been proved right.

Admiral James Stavridis, Nato’s head of Allied Command Operations, says that the key components of success were the legality provided by the UN Security Council mandate, Nato’s ability to draw on a sophisticated command and logistic structure in the Mediterranean, a shared burden of responsibility among the allies and realistic goals (establishing a no-fly zone, introducing an arms embargo and protecting civilians). To these could be added strong regional support against Gaddafi and an increasingly effective and emboldened opposition.

No one would be foolish enough, however, to suggest that it is ‘mission accomplished’ in Libya. Stavridis tells me that challenges abound: ‘The keys will be the new regime’s ability to establish coherent security and basic services, cope with the return of hundreds of thousands of Libyans now in refugee camps across the borders, avoid bloodshed and retribution, create governance along the lines suggested by the National Transitional Council — which include dates and benchmarks to full democracy and elections — and get the economy up and functioning, principally the energy sector.’

That is a tall order for any established government, let alone a transitional council. There is no question that the challenges facing Libyans after Gaddafi are monumental. After 42 years of monomaniacal rule, it would be perverse to think otherwise.

Pessimists will have plenty to cheer in the coming weeks and months. The age-old differences between Tripolitania in the west and Cyrenaica in the east will resurface from the very outset. Some politicians may prefer pistols to parliaments when vying for power or resolving a difference of opinion. Small tribes may feel disenfranchised by the larger, stronger ones. A predominantly command economy cannot be restructured overnight. Oil, that unrivalled lubricant of corruption, will test the mettle and integrity of Libya’s new leaders. It will also test to breaking point the patience of long-suffering Libyans, who have watched the Gaddafi clan plunder the national wealth for four decades.

Shukri Ghanem, the former oil minister, estimates it will take 18 months for Libya to get back to its pre-war level of oil production of 1.6 million barrels a day. That will be much too slow for all those Libyans who believe they have already waited long enough. A generation of Libyan leaders unaccustomed to addressing their fellow citizens will urgently need to communicate the scale of the challenges facing the country. Chaos is likely to loom on the sidelines. As Ronald Bruce St John writes in Libya: From Colony to Independence, after four decades spent studying the country, the post-Gaddafi era will be ‘a time of considerable tension and uncertainty, with numerous socioeconomic and political groups vying for power’.

So what reasons are there for cautious optimism? Well, so far the rebel leadership has barely put a foot wrong. With few resources, it has kept the peace across eastern Libya. The fact there has only been one high-level assassination to date is a remarkable success, not a telling indictment. Assisted by the UN, the UK and the US, the Council has drawn up a detailed stabilisation plan for the immediate post-Gaddafi era. More impressively, it has drafted a 37-point ‘constitutional declaration’ which, if enacted, moves Libya towards elections for a constitutional assembly within eight months. This body would appoint a transitional government, draft a constitution to be offered to Libyans for approval in a national referendum, and hold direct elections for a democratic government within 20 months. If, as is suggested, Jordan leads the international community’s transition to democracy team, with the West reduced to providing air cover, that is another encouraging sign. Fellow Arabs should make a better fist of it. No one wants another western boots-on-the-ground intervention.

So much for plans and political theory. What else of Libya and its people? If the rebels I met in my two recent visits to Libya are any guide, the omens are good. They were not vicious zealots or Islamists, but civilised and well-educated people intent on restoring peace and order as soon as they possibly could. Unlike Iraqis, who have been cutting each other’s heads off with gusto at least since the founding of Baghdad in 762, if not much longer, Libya is not riven by sectarian division. The tribes may have their tensions, but there is no Sunni-Shia split. As Guma al Gamaty, the UK co-ordinator for the rebel council, says, ‘We have no ethnic, religious or sectarian differences. We’re the most homogenous Arab society in the world.’ Libya’s Berbers might beg to differ, of course, but the point is well made.

Libyans have also been blessed with fortunate resources and geography. With even a half-decent government in place, the population of seven million should prosper from the black gold beneath the sand, 47 billion barrels of reserves and counting, together with 1.3 trillion cubic metres of gas. Given the immense oil reserves on one hand, and the tiny population on the other, the fact that a third of Gaddafi’s Libya has lived at or below the national poverty line shows the extent of his misrule.

Earlier this summer, I spoke to one businessman in Benghazi who told me, ‘I remember Sheikh Zayed of Dubai coming to Tripoli for an eye operation in 1978. He saw the city and said, “My God, I wish I could make Dubai like this.” Can you believe that?’

Since then Dubai has grown and developed, while Tripoli has stagnated. But now can Libya follow Dubai’s example? It might sound preposterous. There is no law which states that Libya must now descend into anarchy and civil war, nor is there any guarantee of freedom and democracy. Yet the chances of success here are higher than those in any other Arab country yet to take on its dictator. The truth, as every Libyan knows, is that the opportunity is theirs for the taking.

Justin Marozzi is a travel writer, historian, journalist and political risk and security consultant. He has travelled extensively in the Middle East and Muslim world and in recent years has worked in conflict and post-conflict environments such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Darfur. Justin is a regular contributor to a wide range of national and international publications, including the Financial Times, Spectator, Times, Sunday Telegraph, Guardian, Evening Standard, Standpoint and Prospect, where he writes on international affairs, the Muslim world and defence and security issues, and has broadcast for the BBC World Service and Radio Four.

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Exploring Freedom in the New Middle East…what a fantastic title of this exclusive article from the developments that are taking place in the Middle East. It is written by another of my exploring friends, Maha, who ends up during her explorations in one of the most spectacular countries on earth- Syria. I once passed through the country, north to east to south by bicycle and liked it the most of the countries I than visited south of Turkey. By far. Great people, great atmosphere and excellent food. Maha gets initially the same feelings and it has become a visit which has changed her life in many ways. I also know that most of my exploring friends come from the West and kind of push their opinions and thoughts on you readers from their Western perspective, no matter how sensible and right they are, they´re not local. Maha is from the area and I feel her views as a young woman is more important than ever. However, as always, I have to add that the views of the writer might not necessarily be the views of the site. And Maha, which isn´t her real name, feels lethally threatened by the authorities, so she stays anonymous. And as you see, real exploring makes a difference!

Exploring Freedom in the new Middle East

by

Maha A

Syria is one of the most beautiful countries around the world; I am so grateful that I was lucky enough to get the opportunity to explore such beautiful country!! And it happened that I turned to be a witness to a time of change in Syria. But seeing the image of Hamza Ali Al-Khatib, who is just 13 years old has changed all my perspectives.

I wonder if the Syrian regime felt ashamed or felt some mercy with the death of Hamza – I don’t think there is a more provocative image than seeing the blood shed from the body of an innocent child.

The death of this small child should be enough to convict those who committed this crime and must lead to a restructuring of the Syrian regime. Hamza, surprised the Arab awakening movement within the region, with his claim for his rights and his dream of freedom. He paid the price for this freedom when he went out to protest against the arrest of some children in his city (Derra).

Hamza, gave us a model of real resistance by standing against injustice, tyranny, and those who sold false slogans to the people. Today this regime seems to be very weak in front of Hamza’s body and what happened to him in the face of injustice and which used unmoral ways for their own corrupt desires. And this is how the regime handles unarmed protesters of any age.

Torture is usual in Syria and it is not something new or strange – most Syrians have suffered of it for years, especially, in Hama’s events in 80s. And it is normal that people have decided to keep quiet about it because they wouldn’t prefer to end up in jail or tortured by the regime under any circumstances. But in 80s’ events, there was no media to cover what was going on. There was no Facebook or Twitter. So at that time nobody could see the image of the only 13 years old little boy tortured under the name of State Security.

Yet, people are terrified to speak out and if anyone dares to speak out then the regime is able to crack him/her down and threating him/her and their families which have been seen repeatedly.

On the other hand, all this blood and oppression revealed the truth that this resistance does not emerge from the womb of dictatorial regimes, but comes from a desire to be free in a democratic system, which reflect the aspirations and interests of the street.

All this injustice stemming from the defense of an unjust and bloody dictator, has killed an innocent child and revealed a Syria that commits massacres against its own people. The regime’s legitimacy was lost with the first drop of blood shed in Syria and the mask of this regime has been falling down.

What I am sure about it that Syria is going through a very critical mess – the harsher this regime would be, the more tough the protesters on street would be . People who went out to protest have no choices but to carry this out until the end because there is noway that this regime would be able to forgive them.

And here again, I wonder if I would be able to explore blood scent instead of Jasmin scent (Syria famous of Jasmin). I wonder if I can do more than just listening to people’s stories. Finally, in the memory of Hamza Al-Khatib, how many children will die while i will be just a witness who should  go out to search for the Jasmin scent.

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Baris Koca is Turkeys foremost wildlife photographer and his photography is indeed spectacular, but also very important. He is one of few who has dedicated his life to preserving the unique flora and fauna of this giant of a country, Turkey. It met him during my latest visit to Turkey and we spent a few excellent days together. He is a great guy and a very good human, like me trying to figure out life. Read his great article below:

NATURE’S MY PASSION

I remember i used to watch photos in world atlas when i was a little boy. The images of different geographies and extraordinary creatures have always attracted me much. Maybe this is the reason why i continue my life as a natural life photographer.

During high school and university years, i spent some period of my life away from my visual interests because of my parent’s concern about my future and because i was living in a society which is not so aware of this subject. So that, i found myself seized with the developments in the computer’s world after university. But, after a while during a depression period i’d fallen into, I’d realized that empty values had been directing my life and how i’d been away from inner satisfaction. I started to make many searches to make my life more livable. Fortunately, having gone to the nature was the first of them.

I was wandering in the forest in Yedigöller then i saw the mushroom was lighted by the sun on a steep hill so that I could hardly take the shot.

Whenever i was in nature i was feeling in inner peace, indeed. So, to spend more time in nature i joined trekking groups, in the beginning. ?t was feeling good but not satisfying enough. Later, more serious nature sports, like rock climbing, became my next interest. But again i realized that i couldn’t be motivated sufficiently while doing them. ? felt that what i need was something different. In those days photography got into my life in a way. During my development in photography, i chose my subjects so that it was almost the same place as my previous nature experiences. First travelling photos, then nature sports photos. It went on for a while until i’d realized how we really need natural life to be healthy and the dangers it’d involved. When my knowledge about natural life increased, then my interest has just focused on it. We have the richest natural life (flora and fauna) in Europe and Middle East, so I couldn’t spend my time without thinking about how i could be a part of conversation activities. Also, i’ve started to feel an inner satisfaction as i’ve never felt before while i photograph the nature. I didn’t want this feeling to stop what i feel inside me so eventually, i stopped my 10 ten year old career in engineering to become full time nature photographer.

Though conditions are not good in the sector, i feel happy since i could turn my passion to my life style, eventually. It also increased my joy of life to have a chance to pay back my debt to mother nature…

Yerkopru waterfall: A dream like place in south Turkiye (Mut-Mersin). Though its ice cold water swimming feels like heaven.

———————————————

Bar?? Koca

Nature and wildlife photographer

Born in 1975, graduated from electronics engineering dept. in 1998. Between 2004-2008, while he was still working as an engineer, his travelling photo articles published in several magazines and his photographs awarded by several national and international contests. He was chosen as a member of Management Board of a photography association in Ankara, in 2007-2008.

bald ibis: I took photo of these two bald ibis which are the symbol species of conservation in Turkiye, in ?anl?urfa. They live semi-captive. Other breeding colonies are in Syria and Morocco. Bald ibis which have not migrated for years in the colony in Birecik have been let to migrate for last 2 years. Results show that the speices hasn’t lost its migrating instinct.

In 2008, he merged his passion to nature into full time photography and has become professional. Same year, he has been taken over the head of Photography Working Group in TURCEV (Tourism, Environment and Urban Journalists Association). While he started photographing the biodiversity around Lake Mogan, which is one of the most important wetlands in Ankara where he live, one of his photos awarded as highly commended in “Animal behaviours:Birds” category in BBC wildlife Photographer of the Year, the most prestigious wildlife photography contest in the world, and published in 2008 catalogue. Also, some of his photos, from the same work, was published in National Geographic Türkiye July 2009 issue.

In 2009, he volunteerly started photo editoring of Nature Magazine, a periodic publication of Nature Association. His first personal exhibiton that aim conserving and introducing the wildlife in Turkiye, was performed in Harrison Gallery in Seattle/US by “Turkfest” sponsorship. Also, he became the winner of monthly photo contest of Wild Wonders of Europe. Now, he’s been giving a workshop “Introduction to Nature photography” time to time, and preparing a photography project about natural heritage of Anatolia.

See more of his great photos at www.bariskoca.com

white wagtail: Again in Beypazar? in the same hide. They are very common birds can be observed near lakes and streams. You can easily see them shaking their tails while standing.